2009 Hybrid Cars - The Year Ahead

Published September 30, 2008

What will be the most important 2009 hybrid car developments? The biggest stories will be the release of the third-generation Prius and the return of the Honda Insight. Both are high-volume well-priced options for mainstream car buyers. We will also see the first hybrid introductions from Mercedes and BMW, and improved vehicles from Ford, Honda, Chevrolet, and Saturn. By the end of the year, new plug-in hybrid and all-electric vehicles will make debuts—although as niche offerings.

Continued Growth of the Hybrid Market

Despite tough economic times and a shrinking US vehicle market, demand for hybrids continues to outpace the overall market. We expect the hybrid market to defy the gravity of a recession in 2009.

Hybrid sales—as a percentage of all new car sales—are likely to expand from about 2.5 percent in 2008, to beyond 3 percent in 2009. That will mean almost 500,000 new hybrids hitting American roads in 2009. The Toyota Prius—the third-generation version to debut in January—will continue to sell about half of all hybrids, but will be joined by another big-seller: the 2010 Honda Insight. Honda has a US sales target of 100,000 units per year. The remaining sales will come from a field of hybrids that will grow from 15 models in late 2008 to beyond 20—including Ford's first hybrid sedans, the first hybrid from Mercedes, a dedicated hybrid-only model from Lexus, and the two-mode full hybrid version of the Saturn Vue small SUV.

These projections don't take into consideration new and expanded hybrid incentives likely to emerge from the Obama administration. Bigger tax breaks could accelerate growth in hybrids and other plug-in vehicles.

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Battle of the Hybrid Titans

The first two hybrids to hit the US market back in late 1999/early 2000, were the Insight and Prius. Well, it’s back to the future. Nine years later, these two hybrid titans will once again dominate.

The next Toyota Prius will be unveiled at the Detroit auto show in January 2009. The third generation Prius will be bigger and more powerful. The engine will grow from 1.5 liters to 1.8 liters—giving a boost in horsepower from 110 to 160—and the body will be three to four inches longer and about an inch wider. The combined US fuel economy rating will exceed 50 mpg, by keeping the weight down to current levels and re-engineering the powertrain to extend the range of all-electric gas-free driving.

The next Prius will not offer plug-in capabilities and will continue to use nickel metal hydride batteries, rather than switching to lithium ion batteries.

Right around the time the new Prius arrives, Honda will be shipping its revitalized Honda Insight—perfectly priced several thousand dollars below the Prius. At $19,000, the 2010 Honda Insight will be the most affordable high-mpg vehicle on the market.

The new Honda Insight will be more practical than the earlier Insight. It’s a five-door hatchback with ample room for five passengers. The aerodynamic design borrows elements from Honda’s FCX Clarity fuel cell vehicle, and bears resemblance to the Toyota Prius’s iconic hatchback profile. Honda is pinning its hybrid resurgence on the Insight—and plans to follow in future years with a Honda CR-Z hybrid and perhaps a Honda Fit hybrid.

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Upgrades for 2009 Hybrid Model Year

• 2009 Honda Civic Hybrid

  The Honda Civic, including the hybrid version, gets a sportier style with three larger air -intakes—and new high-tech features for 2009. The front bumper cover and grille are more angular. Inside, the hybrid gets optional leather-trimmed seats, as well as heated fronts seats and side mirrors. A bluetooth-ready navigation system and USB audio interface are also available.

• 2009 Ford Escape Hybrid and 2009 Mercury Mariner Hybrid

  For 2009, the Ford Escape Hybrid replaces a 2.3-liter engine with a 2.5—boosting net horsepower from 155 to 177. Ford engineers refined the Escape hybrid’s braking system to allows for better traction and stability control, and a smoother feel to the brakes, previously not incorporated into the hybrid system. Noise and vibrations have been reduced in the process. This is especially evident when the engine shuts off and the vehicle moves into all-electric mode. A 110-volt AC power outlet now comes standard. The Mercury Mariner Hybrid receives the Sync voice-activated phone and music system as standard equipment.

• 2009 Chevrolet Malibu Hybrid

  For 2009, the Malibu Hybrid is rated at 26 city and 34 highway—meaning a much healthier 4-mpg boost over the base-level Malibu. The previous Malibu Hybrid only managed a 2-mpg gain. The combined fuel economy in our road text was 29.8 miles per gallon.

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2009 Hybrid Introductions

• Ford Fusion Hybrid and Mercury Milan Hybrid

  Hybrid versions of the Ford Fusion and Mercury Milan are expected in 2009. Ford’s first hybrid sedans will use a 2.5-liter engine to yield 200 horsepower. The entire 2009 Fusion lineup will receive a design refresh, including new headlines and front grille and a complete redesign of the interior. More importantly, the cars will return 39 miles per gallon on the EPA city cycle, said chief engineer J.D. Shanahan, and highway mileage “at least 6 miles a gallon better than Camry Hybrid”—which would be 40 mpg or higher. This beats the mileage for the 2008 Camry Hybrid, at 33/34 (city/highway). Other impressive statistics for the Fusion Hybrid include pure electric speeds as high as 47 miles per hour, up to 2 miles of continuous electric-only driving, and a range of 700 city miles on one tank of gasoline.

• Mercedes S-Class Hybrid

  In September 2009, Mercedes will begin to sell a hybrid version of its luxury S-Class sedan—the first hybrid to use lighter and more powerful lithium ion batteries. (Europe will see the vehicle earlier in the summer.) The company promises 30 miles per gallon—a 20 percent fuel economy improvement over the conventional S400. The lithium battery may be leading edge technology but it’s offered at a bleeding edge cost: The S-Class starts at about $88,000—so expect the Mercedes hybrid to cost about $30,000 more than the only other luxury hybrid sedan on the market, the V8 Lexus GS 450h.

  The Lexus, with a whopping 430 horsepower from its hybrid V8 powertrain, will outperform the Mercedes S400 Hybrid’s combined electric and gas rating of 295 horsepower and top speed of 155 miles per hour. Bear in mind that the Lexus GS only managed 23 miles to the gallon. The Mercedes S400 Hybrid will be the first in a series of hybrids expected from the company in coming years.

• New Dedicated Lexus Hybrid: Lexus HS 250h

  In July 2008, the Nikkei, the Japanese business daily newspaper, reported that Lexus will unveil a new hybrid-only model at the 2009 Detroit Auto Show. According to the story, Lexus plans to produce whopping 100,000 units of the vehicle in 2009. It’s part of Toyota’s plan to revamp a number of manufacturing facilities as it gears up to sell 1 million hybrid vehicles annually. The Lexus HS250h will most likely be outfitted with the 2.4-liter engine and electric motor combo found in the Toyota Camry Hybrid, and share many of the same mechanicals as that car. A luxury sedan with fuel efficiency in the mid-30s or higher could be a winner.

• Saturn Vue Green Line Two-Mode

  The current Saturn Vue Green Line uses a version of hybrid technology, known as stop-start, which shuts down the gasoline engine at idle. That mild hybrid technology produces a fuel economy improvement of about 25 percent over its conventional counterparts. Not bad. But the next Saturn Vue Green Line—the “two-mode” hybrid version scheduled to begin production early in 2009—promises a 45 to 50 percent bump in fuel efficiency. That’s huge. The front-wheel drive Saturn Vue Two-Mode hybrid could get combined fuel economy in the high-20s or low-30s. At the same time, the Vue Two-Mode will offer a towing capacity of 3,500 pounds. The mild-hybrid Vue Green Line and full two-mode hybrid version will be sold side by side. Pricing is expected just below $30,000.

• BMW 7-Series Hybrid

  BMW launched its new 7-series in Paris and unveiled a hybrid concept version which will cut fuel use by 15 percent. It combines a V8 engine with electric drive with a mild hybrid system.

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2009 Hybrid Plug-in Introductions

Press releases from a number of small and innovative car companies are promising limited run plug-in hybrid and all-electric vehicles. Like Tesla Motors, which has had trouble pushing vehicles out of the factory, these companies are likely to face challenges in delivering more than a handful of vehicles to consumer.

• Fisker Karma

  The Karma accelerates from 0-60 mph in less than six seconds, and has a top speed of 125 mph. The four-door plug-in hybrid premium sports sedan will have a starting price of $80,000. Initial deliveries of the Karma are schedule to commence in the fourth quarter of 2009.

• VentureOne

  What do you get when you combine the exhilaration of riding a fast motorcycle, the safety and comfort of a commuter car, and the fuel efficiency of advanced automotive technologies? The VentureOne—a two-passenger, three-wheeled, 100-mpg plug-in series hybrid from Venture Vehicles in Los Angeles.

• Phoenix Motorcars SUT

  Phoenix Motorcars begins with an engine-less vehicle supplied by Ssangyong, Korea’s fourth largest automaker. The company adds a 100 kW electric motor system, high-performance motors, generators, controllers, and rechargeable batteries to produce a practical truck that offers a 1,000 pounds of payload capacity, 120 horsepower performance capable of 0-60 mph in less than 10 seconds, and top speeds of 95 mph. Phoenix Motorcars sells the vehicle for about $45,000.